MONDAY was a day when, in the latest jargon, the markets went “risk on”. Equities rose, the spread between the yields of French and German bonds narrowed and the euro rebounded. The reason was the first round of the French presidential election. As the results emerged on Sunday night, it was clear that a) the nightmare of a second round between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon had been avoided and b) Ms Le Pen’s vote was no better than her poll rating, indicating there was no reservoir of shy, far-right voters. The centrist Emmanuel Marcon (pictured) topped the poll and is predicted to get more than 60% of the vote in the second round, far outside the pollsters’ margin of error.

So France will not follow the US and Britain down the path that led to the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit referendum. But it is way too early to say, as some do, that populism is in retreat. First, France has a much greater tradition of support for the far left…Continue reading